Summary Sand production has been a very serious concern for the high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) gas wells in the Tarim Basin. However, the possible reasons and mechanisms remain unclear because there is no sufficient model to predict both onset of sanding and sand‐production rate. The objective of this study is to develop a three‐dimensional (3D) numerical sand production‐prediction model and apply it to these HPHT gas wells to determine the main mechanisms for sand production and to propose completion designs to minimize sand production. This paper presents the development of a fully coupled 3D, poro‐elasto‐plastic sand‐production model and the simulation results for two key wells that are prone to sanding. The sand‐production model was used to model the different completion designs and flowback strategies that were used in the field. The model couples multiphase fluid flow and elasto‐plasticity to simulate pressure transient behavior and rock deformation during production. The sanding criterion is a combination of both mechanical failure (shear/tensile/compressive failure) and fluid erosion. A novel cell‐removal algorithm has been implemented to predict the dynamic (time dependent) sand‐production process. In addition, the complex geometry of the wells and perforations are explicitly modeled to show cavity propagation around hole/perforations during sand production. For this case study, triaxial tests on core samples were conducted, and the stress‐strain curves under different confining stresses are analyzed to obtain rock properties for both the preyield and post‐yield period. The wells were categorized into ones that had massive sand production and ones that showed much less sand production. Operational and mechanical factors that were empirically found to result in sand production were identified. The sand‐production model was run to verify the role played by different factors. It is shown that completion design, rock strength, and post‐failure behavior of the rock are key factors responsible for the observed sanding in these wells. In addition, the drawdown strategy and the associated bottomhole pressure (BHP) change and the extent of depletion play an important role in the sanding rate. Several strategies for minimizing sand production are suggested for these wells. These include drawdown management, completion, and perforation design. In this study, we show for the first time that data from HPHT gas wells that have severe sand‐production problems can be analyzed quantitatively with the developed model to determine the mechanisms of sand production. This allows us to make operational recommendations to minimize sanding risk in these wells.